Procjena ekonomskog rizika u proizvodnim procesima

undergraduate thesis

• Title (english): Economic risk estimation in production processes
• Author: Ana Sačer
• Mentor: Igor Dejanović (mentor)
• Committee member: Igor Dejanović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vesna Tomašić (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Domagoj Vrsaljko (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Technology; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2018-09-13, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Chemical Engineering; Analysis, Synthesis and Management of Chemical Processes

Abstract

Ovaj rad bavi se procjenjivanjem troškova i profitabilnosti te analizama osjetljivosti i rizika prilikom planiranja inženjerskog projekta. Planirane novčane tokove najbolje je prikazati dijagramom toka novca koji predočuje dobitke i isplate vezane za projekt. Nakon njihove procjene, slijedi analiza profitabilnosti, pri čemu su najčešće korištene tehnike ocjene profitabilnosti sadašnja vrijednost, unutarnja stopa povrata i diskontirano vrijeme povrata. S obzirom da u prikupljenim podacima, odnosno predviđenim tokovima novca zasigurno postoje nesigurnosti, potrebno je u analizu unijeti i određenu procjenu rizika. Alati koji se pri tome koriste su analiza osjetljivosti te Monte Carlo analiza. Analizom osjetljivosti se ispituje koliko pojedina nezavisna varijabla utječe na profitabilnost, kako bi se identificirale one varijable kojima treba posvetiti najveću pozornost. Podaci o relativnoj osjetljivosti pojedinog pokazatelja profitabilnosti mogu biti prikazane u tornado ili spider dijagramu. Monte Carlo analiza koristi se kako bi se ispitao simultani utjecaj nezavisnih varijabli na profitabilnost te na taj način analizirao rizik. Kako bi se procijenio i analizirao rizik, potrebno je najprije izračunati vjerojatnost s kojom se pojavljuje neki događaj, vizualno prikazati stablo ekonomskih odluka te Monte Carlo simulacijom izračunati i grafički prikazati raspodjelu vjerojatnosti pojedinih pokazatelja profitabilnosti te identificirati stavke koje najznačajnije doprinose projektnom riziku.

Abstract (english)

This paper deals with cost and profitability estimations, sensitivity analysis and risk analysis during the engineering process planning. Planned cash flows are best shown by cash-flow diagrams which visualizes revenues and expenses in the project. After this estimation, it follows profitability analysis with present worth (PW), internal rate of return (IRR) and discounted payback (DPB) as most commonly-employed profitability evaluation techniques. Considering that there can be found certain insecurities in collected data, it is necessary to introduce risk estimation in the analysis. The tools used during the risk estimation are sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo analysis. Sensitivity analysis tests the causality of certain independent variable on profitability with the intention of identification of the variable whom the greatest attention should be dedicate. What's more, information about relative sensitivity of the certain profitability indicator can be summed up by a tornado diagram and spiderplots. Monte Carlo analysis is used to test simultaneous influence of all independent variables on profitability with the intention to analyze the risk. When estimating and analyzing the risk, it is necessary first to calculate probability of certain event. After that, visualizing economy decision tree follows, and, in the end, using Monte Carlo simulation, calculate and show graphically probability distribution of each profitability indicator and identifies items which contribute the most to project risk.

• Keywords: dijagram toka novca; profitabilnost; sadašnja vrijednost; analiza osjetljivosti; analiza rizika; Monte Carlo simulacija
• Keywords (english): cash flow diagram; profitability; present worth (PW); sensitivity analysis; risk analysis; Monte Carlo simulation
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:149:111642
• Study programme: Title: Chemical Engineering - Undergraduate study; Study programme type: university; Study level: undergraduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/ prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva (sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/ prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2021-11-22 13:15:15