Ekonomska ocjena projekata

undergraduate thesis

• Title (english): Project economic analysis
• Author: Ana Baković
• Mentor: Igor Dejanović (mentor)
• Committee member: Igor Dejanović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Domagoj Vrsaljko (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vesna Tomašić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Technology; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2019-09-12, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Chemical Engineering

Abstract

Temelj ekonomske analize je procjena. Ekonomska ocjena projekata bavi se procjenom troškova, novčanog toka i profitabilnosti. Dva su osnovna pristupa procjene troškova, “odozdo prema gore” i “odozgo prema dolje”. Postoji nekoliko metoda procjene troškova, a u ovom je radu objašnjena metoda faktora koja se koristi za preliminarne procjene troškova procesnih postrojenja. Tokovi novca uključuju prihode i troškove projekta, a grafički se prikazuju dijagramom toka novca. U ekonomske procjene moraju se uključiti inflacija i amortizacija. Inflacija predstavlja opće povećanje cijene robe i usluga, a ima različite izvore, primjerice opskrba novcem i tečajna lista. Amortizacija se definira kao smanjenje vrijednosti imovine zbog starosti, trošenja ili zastarjelosti. Metode amortizacije imovine su straight line model, declining balance model i MACRS metoda. Predviđena kumulativna krivulja novčanog toka za projekt tijekom cijelog njegovog životnog vijeka predstavlja temelj daljnje procjene. Najbolje metode za procjenu profitabilnosti alternativa su sadašnja vrijednost, diskontirana stopa povrata i diskontirano vrijeme povrata. Svaka procjena ima svoj stupanj nesigurnosti, a za određivanje njihovog utjecaja na profitabilnost projekta se koriste analiza osjetljivosti i analiza rizika. Cilj provedbe navedenih analiza je donošenje pouzdanijih odluka. Analiza osjetljivosti koristi se za određivanje kritičnih varijabli modela kojima se treba pridati najveća pozornost. Najčešće korištene tehnike u analizi osjetljivosti su Tornado dijagram i spider dijagram. Procjena rizika obuhvaća analizu vjerojatnosti i analizu samog rizika. Analiza rizika može se provesti Monte Carlo simulacijom u kojoj je svaka varijabla predstavljena modelom raspodjele vjerojatnosti. Pomoću Monte Carlo simulacije identificiraju se oni pokazatelji koji najviše doprinose riziku projekta.

Abstract (english)

The basis of economic analysis is assessment. The economic evaluation of projects deals with the estimation of costs, cash flows and profitability. There are two basic approaches to cost estimation, “bottom-up” design and “top-down” design. There are several cost estimation methods, and this paper explains the factor method used for preliminary cost estimates of process plants. Cash flows include project revenues and costs, and are graphically presented with a cash flow diagram. Economic estimates must include inflation and depreciation. Inflation represents a general increase in the price of goods and services, and has various sources, such as money supply and exchange rates. Depreciation is defined as a decrease in the value of an asset due to age, wear and tear or obsolescence. Depreciation methods are straight line model, declining balance model and MACRS method. The projected cumulative cash flow curve for a project over its lifetime is the basis for further evaluation. The best profitability evaluation methods of alternatives are present worth, discounted cash flow rate of return and discounted payback period. Each estimation has its own degree of uncertainty, so sensitivity analysis and risk analysis are used to determine their impact on project profitability. The goal of carrying out these analysis is to make more reliable decisions. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the critical variables that need to be given the most attention. The most commonly used techniques in sensitivity analysis are the Tornado diagram and the spider diagram. Risk evaluation includes probability analysis and risk analysis itself. Risk analysis can be performed by Monte Carlo simulation in which each variable is represented by a probability distribution model. Monte Carlo simulation identifies those indicators that contribute the most to project risk.

• Keywords: troškovi novca; dijagram toka novca; inflacija; amortizacija; profitabilnost; analiza osjetljivosti; analiza rizika; Monte Carlo simulacija
• Keywords (english): cash flow; cash flow diagram; inflation; depreciation; profitability; sensitivity analysis; risk analysis; Monte Carlo simulation
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:149:548876
• Study programme: Title: Chemical Engineering - Undergraduate study; Study programme type: university; Study level: undergraduate; Academic / professional title: sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/ prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva (sveučilišni/a prvostupnik/ prvostupnica (baccalaureus/baccalaurea) inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Closed access
• Created on: 2023-02-10 12:19:13