Matematički model za predviđanje potrošnje temperaturno ovisnih potrošača prirodnog plina

master's thesis

• Title (english): Mathematical modelling of temperature dependant gas consumers
• Author: Tea Pendić
• Mentor: Igor Sutlović (mentor)
• Committee member: Igor Sutlović (predsjednik povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Veljko Filipan (član povjerenstva)
• Committee member: Vladimir Dananić (član povjerenstva)
• Granter: University of Zagreb; Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Technology; Zagreb
• Defense date and country: 2020-09-14, Croatia
• Scientific / art field, discipline and subdiscipline: TECHNICAL SCIENCES; Basic Technical Sciences

Abstract

Prirodni plin jedan je od najvažnijih energetskih izvora današnjice, a njegova potrošnja uključuje različite aspekte ljudskog života, posebno u kućanstvima gdje se koristi uglavnom za grijanje prostora i vode te u plinskim štednjacima. Osim potrošnje u domaćinstvu, prirodni plin je pronašao svoju primjenu u industriji kao sirovina ili energent, u poljoprivredi, toplanama, kotlovnicama i prometu kao gorivo. Temperaturno ovisni potrošači prirodnog plina su oni čija potrošena količina ovisi o vanjskim uvjetima, odnosno temperaturi okoline. Temperaturno ovisni potrošači u Hrvatskoj zauzimaju udio od oko 40%, pa je potrebno pronaći matematički model koji bi opisao tu potrošnju. Model bi omogućio procjenu količine prirodnog plina koju operator transportnog sustava treba osigurati da bi zadovoljio dnevne potrebe potrošnje prirodnog plina. Ovaj rad daje model koji omogućuje procjenu potrošnje plina u sezoni grijanja, od početka listopada do kraja ožujka, i van sezone grijanja, od početka travnja do kraja rujna. Postoji linearna ovisnost potrošnje o temperaturi okoline, a model opisuje satnu i ukupnu dnevnu potrošnju. U sezoni grijanja uočene su znatne promjene potrošnje s promjenom temperature, dok su u razdoblju van sezone grijanja značajno manje promjene potrošnje s istom promjenom temperature. Iako postoji promjena potrošnje van sezone grijanja, taj iznos se može smatrati konstantnim i rad uzima srednju vrijednost potrošnje plina u tom razdoblju kao konstantu koja se oduzima od ukupne količine potrošnje tijekom razdoblja grijanja kako bi se dobila isključivo temperaturno ovisna potrošnja.

Abstract (english)

Natural gas is one of the most important energy sources of today and its consumption includes various aspects of human life, especially in households where it is used mainly for room and water heating and in gas stoves. In addition to household consumption, natural gas has found its application in industry as a raw material or energy source and in agriculture, cogeneration and heating plants. Temperature dependent gas consumers are considered to be those whose consumed quantities depend on external conditions, mostly temperature. Temperature dependent consumers in Croatia occupy a share of approximately 40%, so it is necessary to find a mathematical model that would describe that consumption. The model would make it possible to predict the quantities of natural gas that the transmission system operator would have to provide in order to meet the daily needs of natural gas consumption. This paper presents a mathematical model that describes gas consumption in the heating season, from October to April. There is a linear dependence of consumption on temperature and the model describes the hourly and total daily consumption. In the heating season, large changes in consumption were observed with a change in temperature, while in the period outside the heating season, significantly smaller changes in natural gas consumption were observed with the same change in temperature. Although there is a change in gas consumption outside the heating season, it can be considered constant and the paper takes the mean value of gas consumption in that period as a constant. This constant is subtracted from the total amount of consumption during the heating season periods in order to obtain temperature dependent gas consumption.

• Keywords: temperaturno ovisni potrošači prirodnog plina; potrošnja prirodnog plina; matematički model; procjena potrošnje plina
• Keywords (english): temperature dependent gas consumers; natural gas consumption; mathematical model; estimation of gas consumption
• Language: croatian
• URN:NBN: urn:nbn:hr:149:475928
• Study programme: Title: Chemical Engineering - Graduate study; Study programme type: university; Study level: graduate; Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva (magistar/magistra inženjer/inženjerka kemijskog inženjerstva)
• Type of resource: Text
• File origin: Born digital
• Access conditions: Open access
• Created on: 2022-03-06 17:19:07